Thursday, October 26, 2006

MSTR going to $150

I just ran the analysis on MSTR. They reported a blow out quarter after hours today - $77M in revenue for the quarter. These guys have a 85% gross margin and roughly fixed quarterly costs of $50M.

All of this points to a $310M top line number for FY2006 and about $357M for FY2007. Based on my numbers this yield a $4.58 and $7.50, respectively. Growing at 15% I think MSTR deserves a 30 multiple or so. This would yield a price target of $137-$225.

Seems like a long to me, even given that the stock is trading after hours at $121. Plenty of upside left.

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