Wednesday, October 18, 2006

high risk, low reward

Well both Intel and Yahoo were little changed on their numbers today. Intel is slightly up -- with weakness from yesterday, I'm about even on the position (I bought a little yesterday morning on the dip). Yahoo is slightly down. Although their numbers were horrific and they were downgraded across the street, Semel announced Panama for Q1 2007 and that took a lot of the downside out.

Continuing to play the numbers game, I opened a GOOG 470 Dec call today. Based on Google's revenue growth I think they will report around $2.70 a share. The consensus estimate is $2.42 which seems like sandbagging to me. If you annualize the $2.70 this implies that GOOG is trading at about 38x earnings at the moment. Cheaper than Yahoo! If this multiple goes to 50 as is warranted by this growth monster, GOOG becomes a $500-550 stock.

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