Wednesday, March 21, 2007

wrong about the fed statement

I have spent some more time parsing the Fed statement this afternoon, and I think I was wrong earlier. My previous post's thesis was: "fed still worried about inflation, not accommodative yet." However, comparing the January and March fed statements shows a key removal. The passage about "further policy firming" is gone. This is no accident.

It looks like Fed cuts, which most of us have been hoping for, are close on the horizon. If there is some gut checking going on over the next few trading sessions, I think they will be buying opportunities.

By the way, though, everybody knew that the Fed was done raising... so the rally today has nothing to do with that. If you look at the data, you'd be crazy to raise. That is absolutely not a surprise.


Anonymous said...

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Alta Dantzler said...

Oh James, I couldn't even get one sentence into your blog without my brain shutting off....
How are you? so great to see you at the wedding.