Tuesday, March 06, 2007

not over yet...

Nice looking and seductive rebound today. I mostly sold into it. I'm still in "circling the wagons" mode, meaning that I took the opportunity to exit some of my metals/commodities positions (AUY, EMU, RIO).

It may seem like the correction is over, but I don't think we've have the capitulation yet. One 500 point down day does not clear out all the marginal buyers and we still need to do that. My downside target for the S+P is 1325. Today we did not break support at 1,400. We still have further down to go.

I noticed a great short opportunity on NEW late in the day but didn't pull the trigger for fear of more short squeeze to the upside. I wish I had been selling into pressure at $6 because it ended up just north of $5 a share. What can you do! I should probably just take it off my screen because it'll end up biting me later.

In any case, feels like a dead-cat bounce here. Brace yourself for the downside.

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